Elon Musk and Bill Gates are embroiled in one of tech’s most contentious feuds, centered around Tesla stock and electric trucks. The Microsoft co-founder allegedly bet $500 million against Tesla when the company struggled years ago.
Now, as Tesla’s Semi truck approaches production in 2026, Musk is reminding everyone of Gates’ skepticism—and suggesting the bet could bankrupt him.
The Massive Short Position Revealed
Bill Gates took a substantial short position against Tesla worth approximately $500 million, betting the company would fail during one of its weakest moments. Short-selling means that Gates borrowed Tesla shares, sold them, and hoped to buy them back at a cheaper price later.
Walter Isaacson’s 2023 biography of Musk revealed that Gates admitted this position to Musk directly, resulting in an estimated $1.5 billion loss as Tesla’s stock climbed.
When Philanthropy Met Hypocrisy
Gates approached Musk in 2022 at Tesla’s Austin gigafactory, seeking collaboration on climate philanthropy. But Musk discovered Gates still held his Tesla short position.
The irony was stunning: Gates wanted help fighting climate change while betting against “the company doing the most to solve climate change,” according to Musk. The meeting ended badly, with no partnership formed.
The Text Message Bombshell
Leaked text messages from April 2022 exposed the confrontation. Musk asked directly: “Do you still have a half-billion-dollar short position against Tesla?” Gates replied, “Sorry to say I haven’t closed it out. I would like to discuss philanthropy possibilities.”
Musk’s response was blunt: he couldn’t take Gates’ climate work seriously while Gates profited from Tesla’s potential demise.
Gates Dismissed Electric Trucks as Impossible
In September 2020, Gates publicly declared that battery-electric semi-trucks like Tesla’s Semi would “probably never” work.
He argued batteries were too heavy: “The more weight you’re trying to move, the more batteries you need. But the more batteries you use, the more weight you add.” Gates insisted heavy, long-haul vehicles needed different solutions besides electricity.
Musk’s Harsh Response to Gates
After learning about the short position, Musk was “super mean” to Gates, according to the Microsoft founder. Musk messaged biographer Isaacson: “At this point, I am convinced he is categorically insane (and a jerk to the core).”
He added that taking a short position against Tesla “results in the highest return only if a company goes bankrupt”.
The Tesla Semi’s Bold Promise
Tesla unveiled the Semi prototype in 2017 with audacious specifications: a 500-mile range, three electric motors producing approximately three times more power than diesel trucks, and 0-60 mph in 20 seconds, even when fully loaded at 82,000 pounds.
Musk claimed it would be “economic suicide” for logistics firms to choose anything else, promising 20% lower operating costs per mile.
Production Delays and Skepticism Mount
Originally promised for 2019 production, the Tesla Semi faced multiple delays. Gates and Daimler Trucks’ leadership publicly questioned whether Tesla’s range claims defied physics.
The skepticism seemed justified as years passed without volume production. However, Tesla delivered the first Semis to PepsiCo in December 2022, marking the beginning of a pilot program that continues to this day.
Real-World Performance Silences Critics
Tesla released a time-lapse video showing the Semi completing a 500-mile trip with a full load on a single charge—exactly what Gates said was impossible.
During the 2023 “Run on Less” event, the Tesla Semi outperformed all competitors, including Volvo, Nikola, and Freightliner, achieving an estimated 400-mile range and 80% charge in just 45 minutes.
PepsiCo Validates the Technology
PepsiCo has expanded its Tesla Semi fleet to 50 trucks operating from facilities in California and New York. The company reports hauling Frito-Lay products approximately 425 miles on a single charge, with shorter 100-mile trips for heavier soda loads.
DHL and other major logistics companies have joined testing programs, reporting efficiencies of 1.64-1.72 kWh per mile of loaded cargo.
The Bankruptcy Warning
In December 2024, Musk issued a stark warning: “If Tesla does become the world’s most valuable company by far, that short position will bankrupt even Bill Gates.”
With Gates’ net worth at $108 billion, Musk suggested that continued stock gains could obliterate even the wealthiest short sellers. He believes Gates still maintains the position years later.
Volume Production Finally Approaching
After years of delays, Tesla confirmed that the Tesla Semi factory building in Reno, Nevada, is complete, with equipment installation underway.
The company now targets its first production builds for early 2026, ramping up to volume production in the second half with a capacity for 50,000 trucks annually. This timeline represents yet another delay from the previous 2025 guidance.
The Upgraded 2026 Model
Tesla has revealed a refreshed Semi design with significant improvements, including 15% better efficiency, enhanced aerodynamics, a 1.7 kWh per mile range, increased payload capacity, and hardware ready for autonomous driving.
The truck supports 1.2 megawatt charging for dramatically faster recharging. These upgrades position it more competitively against European rivals from Daimler and Volvo.
Competition Heats Up Globally
While Tesla delayed production, competitors moved ahead. Volvo has delivered over 5,000 electric trucks, while Daimler’s Mercedes-Benz eActros 600 won the International Truck of the Year award. Additionally, multiple manufacturers now offer battery-electric semi-trucks.
The global electric truck market is projected to grow from $13.63 billion in 2024 to $57.34 billion by 2035, at a 13.95% annual growth rate.
Tesla’s Technical Advantages
Despite competition, the Tesla Semi maintains significant advantages, including an approximately 800 kW powertrain, superior charging speeds, and adding miles per minute faster than rivals. Additionally, regenerative braking reduces brake wear, and a centrally positioned driver seat provides improved visibility.
The truck can climb steep grades at highway speeds while fully loaded, passing diesel trucks on mountain passes like Donner Pass.
Weight Concerns Addressed
Critics argued battery weight would cripple payload capacity. However, analysis shows the Tesla Semi weighs approximately 23,000-27,000 pounds, only 6,000-8,000 pounds more than diesel equivalents after accounting for the 2,000-pound exemption for electric trucks and lighter electric motors versus diesel drivetrains.
Most shipments are “cubed out” (volume-limited) rather than weight-limited anyway.
The Autonomous Future Beckons
Tesla plans to integrate self-driving technology into the Semi fleet. Vice President Lars Moravy confirmed autonomous capabilities are coming once more trucks reach the road.
Tesla will be its own first customer, electrifying its vehicle logistics supply chain starting in Texas operations before rolling out to other customers. This could revolutionize freight economics.
Major Fleet Orders Piling Up
Beyond PepsiCo’s growing fleet, Tesla has secured orders for its Semi from Walmart, Costco, Sysco, Martin Brower, US Foods, Anheuser-Busch, UPS, DHL, J.B. Hunt, and others. PepsiCo alone initially ordered 100 trucks in 2017.
These reservations represent billions in potential revenue once production reaches full capacity at 50,000 annual units.
The Deeper Meaning of the Feud
The Musk-Gates conflict transcends personal animosity—it represents a fundamental disagreement about innovation and climate solutions. Gates questioned whether radical approaches, such as long-range electric trucks, were feasible, preferring incremental solutions for “hard-to-decarbonize” sectors.
Musk bet everything on proving doubters wrong, viewing Gates’ short position as both hypocritical and personally offensive given his climate advocacy.
The Final Reckoning Approaches
As 2026 production nears, Tesla’s Semi will finally face its ultimate test at commercial scale. If successful, Musk’s vindication will be complete, potentially costing Gates and other short sellers billions more.
The Stakes extend beyond one feud: the Semi’s success or failure will determine whether battery-electric technology can truly revolutionize freight transportation—or if Gates’ original skepticism was justified after all.