American retailers are grappling with escalating theft losses that threaten their survival, totaling $112.1 billion in 2022 from shrinkage including shoplifting, employee dishonesty, errors, and damage. Projections point to $115 billion to $140 billion annually by 2025, with traditional law enforcement responses proving insufficient as retailers take matters into their own hands.
Self-checkout systems, meant to slash costs and hasten service, have instead fueled the crisis. Grabango data reveals a 3.5% shrink rate at self-checkout—16 times the 0.21% at traditional registers. Shoppers often scan fewer items than they take, like ringing up two sodas for three. Now handling 30% of transactions in the $1 trillion food retail sector, self-checkout drains over $10 billion yearly from grocery chains.
A Problem Deeply Rooted
Shoplifting has tormented retailers for over a century, but its recent surge stands out. The U.S. logged 1.15 million cases in 2023, the most since 2019, driven by organized crime rings hitting luxury and everyday goods across states. Daily thefts dominate losses, prompting store closures, locked merchandise cases, and operational overhauls nationwide. The issue’s scale, not its existence, defines the emergency.
Escalating Pressures and Responses
Capital One forecasts $47.8 billion in U.S. retail theft losses for 2025, potentially topping $55 billion by 2028 absent intervention. About 30% of stores aim to boost loss prevention spending next year, turning to locked shelves and AI cameras. These fixes address symptoms, while retailers increasingly view theft as a tech shortfall demanding innovative counters.
Amazon’s Just Walk Out (JWO) technology, rolled out to retailers since March 2020, scraps checkouts entirely. AI cameras, weight sensors, and RFID tags track items as customers scan a payment method on entry, shop freely, and exit with automatic billing. Amazon asserts real-time monitoring erases theft. Over 300 deployments operate worldwide, with competitor Grabango echoing its potential before closing in October 2024.
Proven in Controlled Spaces
JWO excels in high-traffic, limited-selection spots like stadiums, airports, hospitals, and campuses. Seattle’s Lumen Field runs 15 kiosks, with the first Just Walk Out location reporting a 112% increase in sales per game and an 85% increase in transactions per game during its debut 2022 season. The Washington Commanders adopted it too, amid over 70 sports and entertainment sites. These wins highlight reliability where product variety stays low, though grocery stores with 50,000 items pose steeper hurdles.
Cost and Adoption Hurdles
Amazon slashed JWO costs over 50%, with some metrics down 96% since 2017, and installation now takes 1-5 days versus months. Still, Amazon Web Services’ Anthony Leggett noted in December 2025 that deployment and upkeep remain prohibitive for most. A 10,000-square-foot store demands 1,500 to 3,000 sensors, cameras, and hefty annual maintenance—feasible for airports, daunting for local grocers.
Walmart skips full automation, investing in ArcadianAI for surveillance zones and real-time theft alerts. By mid-2025, it cut 60% of live guards, linking shrink cuts to executive incentives. Target locks high-theft goods and tests quick-unlock tech, rolling Express Self-Checkout (10 items max) to 2,000 stores in 2024. Kroger eyes AI at self-checkout for instant detection. No major grocer commits to JWO.
Amazon’s Own Retreat
Paradoxically, Amazon yanked JWO from its Fresh stores in 2024, shuttering over 30 U.S. sites in 2025—including four in Southern California, others in New York, Virginia, Washington, and all 14 U.K. outlets. About 60 Fresh stores linger across nine states. CEO Andy Jassy cited customer preference for Dash Carts on bigger shops.
Shoppers balk at unseen totals, fearing errors in charges, plus digital-only payments alienate some. Surveys flag unease without pre-exit verification; hybrids blending automation and humans may dominate. Former JWO head Jon Jenkins called it “extremely capable” in late 2024, but acceptance lags capability.
Cautious Path Forward
Amazon added 150 of its 300+ JWO sites in 2024, eyeing 100 more by 2026’s end, with Leggett forecasting bigger growth. It suits niches like stadiums for revenue via licensing and upkeep. Skeptics question grocery fit amid costs, ROI, and Amazon Fresh’s stumbles. As losses near $55 billion by 2028, JWO’s role—niche fix or broad savior—hinges on costs falling further, rivals adapting, and shoppers embracing seamlessness without friction.
Sources:
Retail TouchPoints, Amazon’s Just Walk Out Tech Poised to Break into a Run, December 8, 2025
CNBC, Amazon bets on selling cashierless technology to retailers, October 5, 2024
Capital One, Retail theft loss analysis (research data), December 5, 2024
Retail Dive, Shrink cost retailers $100B last year, May 28, 2018
Freedom For All Americans, Shoplifting in 2025 – Data, Trends, and Analysis, April 13, 2025
AWS (Amazon Web Services), Just Walk Out Technology, December 8, 2025