For a year, Hawaiʻi’s Kilauea volcano has been erupting in dramatic bursts that have lit up the night sky, drawn crowds to Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park, and steadily reshaped the summit crater—without sending lava into nearby communities. Now, as the first anniversary of the current summit activity approaches, scientists say the volcano appears ready for its next episode, likely within a narrow window in early December.
Patterns in the Crater
Unlike the continuous lava flows that defined some past events on Kilauea, the current summit activity has unfolded in distinct episodes that last from a few hours to about eight days. Since the eruption began on December 23, 2024, there have been 37 such phases, each with its own tempo, fountain height, and behavior. Between episodes, the volcano’s surface quiets and the summit caldera appears still, even as magma continues to move underground. This stop‑and‑start pattern has created an unusual mix of anticipation and uncertainty for residents, visitors, and scientists who monitor every subtle shift beneath the crater floor.
Signals from Below
As of December 4, 2025, instruments operated by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Hawaiian Volcano Observatory have detected renewed inflation of the ground at Kilauea’s summit, a sign that magma is once again accumulating at shallow depth. Highly sensitive tiltmeters show the surface rising as molten rock pushes upward, like a slow breath building under the caldera.
Drawing on a year of data from previous episodes, USGS models suggest that the next event—informally referred to as Episode 38—is most likely to begin between December 6 and 9, with the highest probabilities around December 7 and 8. While forecasts for volcanoes are always probabilistic, the repeatable sequence of inflation, seismic activity, and gas changes before each episode has given scientists increased confidence in this short‑term outlook.
Spectacle and Hazards
During this year‑long series, Kilauea’s lava fountains have varied widely in height. Many recent episodes have produced fountains in the range of about 500 to 600 feet, creating bright orange plumes visible from miles away. In October 2025, however, Episode 35 propelled lava to roughly 1,500 feet—higher than the roof of the Empire State Building—showing the summit vent’s capacity for extreme displays.
Scientists note that Episode 38 could generate similarly tall fountains, with incandescent jets towering over the crater walls. The activity remains confined inside the summit caldera within Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park, a sharp contrast with the 2018 lower Puna eruption that destroyed about 700 homes and forced roughly 2,000 people to evacuate. No residential areas are currently threatened by lava flows, and emergency managers do not anticipate evacuation orders. Still, the eruptions carry other risks. Fine strands of volcanic glass known as “Pele’s hair” can form when lava fountains shatter into filaments that are stretched by the wind.
These fibers may travel more than 10 miles downwind, settling on roads, vehicles, and yards. Though not usually dangerous, they can irritate skin, eyes, and lungs, prompting health officials to advise downwind residents to close windows and limit exposure during strong fountaining. Each episode also emits sulfur dioxide gas, which reacts in the atmosphere to form volcanic smog, or vog. During active phases, emissions can reach about 1,500 tonnes per day, at times creating a hazy veil over parts of the island. People with asthma, heart disease, or other respiratory conditions are urged to watch air quality reports and stay indoors if vog intensifies.
Crowds, Curiosity, and Safety
Despite the ongoing summit eruption, Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park remains open around the clock. Park rangers periodically adjust closures near the crater rim to keep visitors away from unstable cliffs, fresh cracks, and other hazards, while still allowing access to overlooks such as Uēkahuna, where distant views of the lava fountains are possible.
When an episode begins, nighttime visitation typically surges as people gather to see the glow from the crater. Tour operators have reported strong demand for guided trips and educational programs that explain the science and history of Kilauea while steering visitors toward safe vantage points. The draw of a close view can, however, push some people into dangerous situations. In June 2025, a 30‑year‑old visitor from Boston left a marked trail after dark in search of a better look at the fountains and fell about 30 feet from a cliff edge.
A tree broke his fall, preventing a much deeper plunge into the crater. Park rangers have handled several search‑and‑rescue operations since the summit eruption began, reinforcing their message to stay on designated paths and obey all closures even when the activity appears stable.
A Living Landscape and the Road Ahead
Over 37 episodes, the eruption has dramatically altered the interior of Kilauea’s summit crater. Lava has thickened the crater floor by nearly 200 feet, and a new cinder cone has risen to almost 150 feet above the rim, creating a prominent feature that did not exist a year ago. In many ways, the towering fountains recall the early years of the Puʻu ʻŌʻō eruption, which began in 1983 and continued for 35 years, reshaping Kilauea’s East Rift Zone and inundating communities.
The current activity, however, is confined to a closed summit basin within the national park, separating the spectacle from the destructive impacts that defined earlier events. Scientists at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory maintain round‑the‑clock surveillance of the volcano, using tiltmeters, seismographs, gas sensors, and webcams to track changes in real time and issue daily updates.
Their data indicate that pressure is again building beneath the summit and that another episode is likely in the coming days, though the exact start time, duration, and fountain heights remain uncertain. For now, residents, officials, and visitors are watching the forecasts, monitoring health advisories, and preparing for a possible surge in park visitation. As magma continues to rise beneath the caldera, Kilauea’s current rhythm of episodic eruptions offers both an extraordinary window into active volcanism and a reminder that the mountain ultimately sets its own schedule.
Sources:
USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory – Kīlauea volcano updates and activity notices
USGS Volcano Notifications for Aviation – Kīlauea alert level and aviation color code records
USGS / Smithsonian Weekly Volcanic Activity Report – Kīlauea eruption summaries and status
Hawai‘i Department of Health – Big Island volcanic eruption health and preparedness guidance